刘海隆, 杨晓光, 王玲. 重庆三峡库区农业气候变化的研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2003, 11(4): 139-142.
引用本文: 刘海隆, 杨晓光, 王玲. 重庆三峡库区农业气候变化的研究[J]. 中国生态农业学报(中英文), 2003, 11(4): 139-142.
LIU Hai-Long, YANG Xiao-Guang, WANG Ling. Variety in agro-climate of Three-Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2003, 11(4): 139-142.
Citation: LIU Hai-Long, YANG Xiao-Guang, WANG Ling. Variety in agro-climate of Three-Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2003, 11(4): 139-142.

重庆三峡库区农业气候变化的研究

Variety in agro-climate of Three-Gorges Reservoir in Chongqing

  • 摘要: 对重庆三峡库区1961~2000午气候周期性和非周期性变化研究分析发现,各种气温、日照均具有20午的主要周期,库区东部气温非周期性变化平均增加2.0℃,东部降水量平均减少181.5mm,较中、西部变化显著。建立了GM(1,1)灰色系统模型,对未来10午库区各段农业气候生态变化进行预测,库区东部和西部生长季气温将升高0.5~1.0℃,中部则略有下降,东部日照将增加200h左右,中、西部将减少0~200h,降水量中部将减少200mm 左右.东、西部将增加100~500mm。并提出适应策略。

     

    Abstract: In this article the variety of climate in Three-Gorges Reservoir from 1961 tO 2000 is analyzed.The results show that a 20-years main cycle in temperature and sunlight is found out and the variety of non-cycle temperature in the Eastern reservoir has increa sed 2.0℃ ,more higher than other sections,and the variety of the precipitation in the ea st has decrea sed 181.5mm ,more obvious than the west and the center.The agro-climate environm ent variety in the next 10 years is forecasted by GM (1,1)Gray System Model,the results show that most of the reservoir’S climate elements will increase,some will lessen.Finally,some advices are put forward.

     

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