雒舒琪, 胡晓萌, 孙媛, 闫彩, 张鑫. 耦合PLUS-InVEST模型的多情景土地利用变化及其对碳储量影响[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2023, 31(2): 300−314. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20220520
引用本文: 雒舒琪, 胡晓萌, 孙媛, 闫彩, 张鑫. 耦合PLUS-InVEST模型的多情景土地利用变化及其对碳储量影响[J]. 中国生态农业学报 (中英文), 2023, 31(2): 300−314. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20220520
LUO S Q, HU X M, SUN Y, YAN C, ZHANG X. Multi-scenario land use change and its impact on carbon storage based on coupled Plus-Invest model[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2023, 31(2): 300−314. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20220520
Citation: LUO S Q, HU X M, SUN Y, YAN C, ZHANG X. Multi-scenario land use change and its impact on carbon storage based on coupled Plus-Invest model[J]. Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture, 2023, 31(2): 300−314. DOI: 10.12357/cjea.20220520

耦合PLUS-InVEST模型的多情景土地利用变化及其对碳储量影响

Multi-scenario land use change and its impact on carbon storage based on coupled Plus-Invest model

  • 摘要: 土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)是陆地生态系统碳储量变化的重要原因, LUCC往往受政策的限制, 从而影响碳储量变化。预测政策指引下的西安市2030年LUCC, 分析其对碳储量的影响, 对西安市政策制定、土地利用结构调整、实现“双碳”目标具有重要意义。本研究基于2000年、2010年和2020年土地利用数据(LULC), 选取11个驱动因子, 根据西安市“十四五”政策规划建立自然发展(Q1)、生态保护(Q2)和城镇发展(Q3) 3个情景, 采用PLUS模型预测并分析西安市2030年土地利用空间分布格局, 并耦合InVEST模型评估西安市在不同发展情景的碳储量变化。研究表明: 1) PLUS模型在西安市的适用性较强, 模型总体精度为0.93, Kappa系数为0.89。2) 2000—2020年西安市建设面积、草地、水体数量增加, 耕地、林地、湿地面积减少, 从转移方向上看, 主要由耕地转为建设用地。3) 2030年, Q1情景延续了以往发展模式, Q2情景下林地、水体等生态用地数量均较2020年有所增加, Q3情景下建设用地大幅增加, 增幅为10.42%。4) LUCC是导致生态系统碳储量变化的主要原因, 2030年Q1情景下碳储量总量较2020年减少373.28 t, 说明延续以往的发展模式会使碳储量总量减少; Q2情景下碳储量总量较2020年增加564.73 t, 说明一定的生态保护措施保护了林地、湿地等生态用地和耕地的数量, 限制了碳密度较高的生态用地和耕地等转化成碳密度较低的建设用地, 可以减缓陆地生态系统碳储量减少趋势, 增加西安市碳储量; Q3情景下碳储量减少734.15 t, 城市化进程的加快, 建设用地规模扩大, 大量的建设用地占用生态用地和耕地, 从而使碳储量大幅减少。研究表明建设用地大幅扩张侵占生态用地和耕地是造成生态系统碳储量流失的主要原因, 实施科学、合理的生态保护措施, 可以很好地解决因经济发展而造成的碳储量下降问题。

     

    Abstract: Land use/cover change (LUCC) is an important cause of carbon storage change in terrestrial ecosystems. Land use change is often constrained by policy, which affects carbon stock changes. To forecast the LUCC of Xi’an in 2030 under the guidance of the policy, and analyze its impact on carbon storage is of great significance for Xi’an policy-making, land use structure adjustment, and the realization of the “double carbon” goal. Based on the land use data (LULC) of 2000, 2010, and 2020, this study selected 11 driving factors and established three development scenarios of business as usual (Q1), ecological protection (Q2), and town development (Q3), respectively, according to the Xi’an “14th Five-Year Plan” policy planning. The PLUS model was used to predict and analyze the spatial distribution pattern of land use in Xi’an in 2030, and the InVEST model was coupled to evaluate the carbon storage of Xi’an in different development scenarios and analyze the change in carbon storage. The results show that: 1) the PLUS model has strong applicability in Xi’an City. The overall accuracy of the model was 0.93 and the Kappa coefficient was 0.89. 2) From 2000 to 2020, the areas of construction lands, grasslands and water bodies in Xi’an increased, while the areas of arable land, woodland, and wetland decreased. From the perspective of the transfer direction, arable land was mainly converted to construction land. 3) Q1 continued with the previous development pattern. In 2030, the quantity of ecological land, such as woodlands and water bodies, under Q2 increased compared with that in 2020, and the construction land areas under Q3 increased by 10.42%. 4) LUCC was the main reason for changes in ecosystem carbon storage. The total carbon storage under Q1 in 2030 decreased by 373.28 t compared with that in 2020, indicating that a continuation of the previous development mode would reduce the total carbon storage. Under Q2 in 2030, carbon storage increased by 564.73 t from 2020, which explains certain ecological protection measures to protect forest land, wetland, and increase the amount of cultivated land. This would also limit the transfer of ecological lands with high carbon density, such as cultivated land, into low carbon density land for construction purposes, potentially slowing the increasing trend of carbon reserves in terrestrial ecosystems. Under Q3, with the acceleration of urbanization, the scale of construction land has expanded, and a large number of urban areas occupy ecological and cultivated lands, which greatly reduces carbon storage. The results show that the major reason for the loss of carbon storage is the large expansion of construction land and the encroachment of ecological and arable land. The implementation of scientific and reasonable ecological protection measures can solve the carbon storage decline problem caused by economic development.

     

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