北京地区畜禽温室气体排放的时空变化分析

Spatiotemporal dynamics of greenhouse gases emissions from livestock and poultry in Beijing area during 1978-2009

  • 摘要: 运用IPCC估算农业温室气体排放指南, 对1978-2009年期间畜禽存栏统计数据进行分析, 研究北京地区畜禽养殖温室气体排放的时空分布。结果表明, 北京地区畜禽温室气体排放自20世纪90年代初逐步增长, 到2004年达到顶峰, 之后有所回落。在3类排放的温室气体中, 牲畜肠道发酵产生的甲烷比重最大, 年平均排放量为0.4 Tg CO2-eq, 排放贡献最大的是牛, 占肠道发酵甲烷排放总量的54%; 牲畜粪便排放的甲烷平均值为0.2 Tg CO2-eq, 牲畜粪便排放的氧化亚氮平均值为0.3 Tg CO2-eq, 畜禽粪便管理排放的甲烷和氧化亚氮主要来自猪的排放, 其贡献率分别为73%和46%。从1978-2009年北京畜禽温室气体排放CR4指数(产业集中度指数)逐步增高可以看出, 北京市畜禽产业集约化水平不断提高, 其中顺义、大兴、密云和通州是北京畜禽温室气体排放的主要区域。同时, 对历年畜禽温室气体排放进行了线形回归预测, 结果显示, 北京地区的畜禽温室气体排放仍呈递增走势。结合北京地区畜禽产业温室气体排放的特点与存在问题, 笔者认为应尽快提出适合畜牧业可持续发展的温室气体减排策略及减排目标, 开展温室气体减排技术研发, 从而推进畜禽产业的可持续发展。

     

    Abstract: Livestock production, especially its intensification around metropolitan areas, has contributed immensely to global warming. The estimation and analysis of spatial and temporal patterns of greenhouse gas emissions from livestock and poultry production were critical for the formulation of mitigation and adaptation strategies of national agricultural sectors. To investigate greenhouse gas emissions from enteric fermentation and manure management of livestock and poultry industry in Beijing area, emissions of methane and nitrous oxide during 1978-2009 were estimated based on regional livestock statistics. The study used the emission factor method recommended by the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and specific emphasis was placed on the trends and spatial distributions of the emissions. The results showed that livestock and poultry emissions in Beijing area started increasing at the early 1990s and peaked in 2004, with an average annual growth rate of 2%. This trend was similar to the increase in livestock and poultry population in Beijing area. Among the emissions, enteric fermentation methane was the most significant, with annual average emission of 0.4 Tg CO2-eq. Cattle was the main contributor to enteric fermentation methane emission, accounting for 54%, followed by swine and sheep. The annual average emissions of methane and nitrous oxide from manure management were 0.2 Tg CO2-eq and 0.3 Tg CO2-eq, respectively. The emissions were mainly from swine, respectively accounting for 73% and 46% of the emitted methane and nitrous oxide. Increase in methane indicated the intensification of livestock and poultry industry in Beijing area during 1978-2009. CR4 (industry concentration index) increased progressively from 1978 to 2009, indicating unceasing enhancement of the intensity of livestock industry in Beijing area. The emissions were mainly from Shunyi, Daxing, Miyun and Tongzhou Districts. The estimated livestock methane and nitrous oxide emissions in Beijing area for 1978-2009 was consistent with the linear growth model. Although an arduous task, it was urgent for the Beijing livestock industry to adopt efficient reduction strategies of greenhouse gases emission.

     

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