省域水资源可持续利用效率分析

Analysis of sustainable use efficiency of provincial water resources

  • 摘要: 我国正面临着严峻的水资源短缺、水质恶化和水生态退化问题, 高效、可持续地利用水资源至关重要。为了通过省域之间的相互比较来提高我国省域水资源可持续利用效率, 本文从水资源可持续利用的基本要求出发, 以国土面积和Ⅲ类以下水资源量为投入变量, 以地区生产总值和人口数量为产出变量, 应用DEA(BCC)-Tobit两步法测算了中国26个省域水资源可持续利用相对效率, 分析了影响省域水资源可持续利用效率的关键因素。结果表明, 规模偏大与不合理用水导致我国省域水资源的可持续利用效率总体较低, 综合效率均值为0.303, 纯技术效率均值为0.592, 规模效率均值为0.513。水资源可持续利用效率的省际差异很大, 综合效率值的变异系数达1.010, 效率提升的潜力很大。第一产业增加值占地区生产总值的比重、单位国土面积环保投资额和耕地占国土面积比重是影响省域水资源可持续利用效率的3个关键因素, 影响系数依次为?0.015 7、0.014 2和0.004 9。综合分析可知, 在充分保护和持续利用耕地的基础上推进工业化、城镇化和农业现代化, 调整经济发展结构, 加大环保投资有利于提高省域水资源可持续利用效率。

     

    Abstract: Due to severe water shortage, water quality deterioration and aquatic ecosystem degradation, it is highly urgent to adopt efficient and sustainable use of water resources in China. To improve the sustainable use efficiency of provincial water resources in China, this paper estimated and analyzed water sustainable use efficiencies in 26 provinces using the DEA(BCC) model. While the model input variables included land area, and amount of water resources below Grade Ⅲ, the output variables included GDP and population. The Tobit regression analysis was used to screen key factors that influenced sustainable use of provincial water resources from the listed total possible influencing factors. Such factors included proportions of added value of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry to GDP; proportion of arable land to land area, forest cover, irrigated area rate and investment in environmental protection per area. The results showed that large-scale of province area and unreasonable water use resulted in overall low efficiency of sustainable use of water in the investigated provinces. Total efficiency, technology efficiency and scale efficiency were 0.303, 0.592 and 0.513, respectively. Inter-provincial differences in overall efficiency was great with variation coefficient of 1.010 implying that there existed the potential to improve the sustainable use efficiency of water resources in the country. There were three most important factors that influenced provincial water sustainable use efficiency. The factors included proportion of added value of primary industry to GDP, investment in environmental protection per area and arable land rate, with effect coefficients of ?0.015 7, 0.014 2 and 0.004 8, respectively. Since the proportion of added value of primary industry to GDP had the highest negative effect on the sustainable use efficiency of provincial water resources, it was essential to promote industrialization and urbanization to reduce this effect. This in turn increased not only economic output per unit water resources, but also improved water use efficiency across the country. The environmental investment per area had significant positive effect on the sustainable use efficiency of water resources. This indicated that increased environmental protection investment favored use efficiency of water in the country. Arable lands had better water conditions than non-arable lands and were also more conducive to natural water cycle than urban and industrial lands. The arable land rate positively influenced water resources sustainable use efficiency. Comprehensive analysis showed that promoting industrialization, urbanization and agricultural modernization along with the protection and sustainable use of arable lands, adjustment of economic development structures, and increase in environmental protection could improve the sustainable use of provincial water resources in China.

     

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