我国能源消费与CO<sub>2</sub>排放的系统动力学预测

我国能源消费与CO₂排放的系统动力学预测

摘要: 目前我国正处在全面建设小康社会的重要发展阶段。在人口总量增加、经济持续发展、居民生活能源消费不断提高的情况下，对能源供需状况进行科学、合理的预测对保障我国能源供给、促进经济可持续发展和CO₂减排，实现社会可持续发展具有重要意义。本文在研究我国现阶段能源消费和人口、经济发展现状的基础上，运用系统动力学模型预测了我国能源需求和CO₂排放量，提出能源发展和削减CO₂排放量的设想和对策。

Abstract: China is in the process of constructing an all-round, well-off society. Under the current circumstances of growing population, increasing economic development and daily energy consumption, a realistic forecast of energy demand and supplement is of particular importance for guaranteed energy supply, progressive economic development and limited CO_{2_{emission for a sustainable development of the society. By analyzing the mode of energy consumption and population and economic development, we predict energy demand and CO_{2_{emission in the new periodical with system dynamics approach, and then advance suggestions and countermeasures for energy development and released CO₂ limit.}}}}