气候变化背景下华北平原夏玉米各生育期水热时空变化特征

Spatiotemporal characteristics of heat and rainfall changes in summer maize season under climate change in the North China Plain

  • 摘要: 气候变化背景下, 华北平原气候资源也发生了相应变化。研究作物生长季各生育期的水热时空变化特征, 对适应气候变化技术与政策的制定有重要意义。本文基于华北平原49个气象站点的逐日气象数据和27个农业气象试验站的物候期数据, 分析了1961-2010年在夏玉米营养生长期、并进期、生殖生长期和全生育期的生长度日(GDD)、高温度日(HDD)、降水量及气候倾向率的时空分布。结果显示, 华北平原夏玉米各生育期GDD、HDD均呈东北 西南走向的递增趋势, 降水量呈东南 西北递减趋势。华北平原夏玉米在全生育期GDD倾向率、HDD倾向率、降水量倾向率分别为8.14 ℃·d·10a-1、 2.45 ℃·d·10a-1、 10.75 mm·10a-1。华北北部GDD在营养生长期呈递减趋势, 在并进期、生殖生长期以及全生育期呈递增趋势, 而华北南部GDD变化趋势与之相反; HDD在各生育期均呈现北部递增, 南部递减趋势。降水量在各生育期均表现为北部降低, 南部增加趋势。因此, 河北省北部、北京市和天津市等华北北部地区夏玉米生产高温风险与干旱风险呈增加趋势, 而河南省大部、山东省南部等华北南部地区高温风险与干旱风险呈降低趋势。

     

    Abstract: Significant climate change has occurred across the North China Plain in the past few decades, corresponding to global climate change. Climate change during the growth period of summer maize has caused far-reaching impacts on production in the region, which is one of the most vital summer maize production regions in China. Based on observation data from 49 meteorological stations and 27 agro-meteorological stations, this paper analyzed growth degree days (GDD), heat degree days (HDD) and rainfall, and their climatic trend rates for the vegetative growth phase, vegetative and reproductive growth phase, productive growth phase and whole growth period of summer maize in the North China Plain for the period 1961?2010. The results showed that both GDD and HDD increased from northeast to southwest of the North China Plain. However, rainfall decreased from southeast to northwest of the plain. The climatic trend rates of GDD, HDD and rainfall from 1961 to 2010 in the North China Plain were 8.14 ℃·d·10a-1, 2.45 ℃·d·10a-1 and 10.75 mm·10a-1, respectively. Furthermore, GDD decreased during the vegetative growth phase, increased during vegetative and reproductive growth phase, reproductive growth phase and whole growth period of summer maize in northern region of the North China Plain for the period 1961-2010. However, the reverse trends were noted for the southern of the plain. HDD increased in the north but decreased in the southern of the North China Plain. Rainfall decreased in the north but increased in the south for all the growth stages. Consequently, high temperature and drought posed significant risks to summer maize production in the north Hebei Province, Beijing City and Tianjin City in the north of the North China Plain. However, the risks of temperature and drought decreased for most of Henan Province and southern Shandong Province in the south of the North China Plain for the period 1961-2010.

     

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