玉米产量潜力及超高产物质积累途径优化分析方法

Optimized FAO-AEZ model for estimation of maize yield potential and dry matter accumulation for super-high yield cultivation

  • 摘要: 作物产量潜力估计对于作物生产及超高产创建具有重要的理论指导意义。本文以玉米品种'先玉335'为试验材料, 于2005-2013年在吉林省3个不同生态类型区(乾安县、公主岭市和桦甸市)布置密度试验进行玉米超高产研究, 利用获取的田间试验资料结合FAO-AEZ模型提出了一种基于优化模式的玉米产量潜力估计方法, 解决了FAO-AEZ模型中收获指数常数的选择问题, 并进一步建立玉米超高产生产中干物质积累途径分析方法。结果表明, 玉米的产量与描述其干物质积累过程的Logistic方程参数密切相关, 所建关系模型达到极显著水平(P<0.01), 并通过2012年和2013年实际产量统计检验; 基于非线性优化理论, 利用所建产量关系模型估算出乾安县和桦甸市的产量潜力, 较FAO-AEZ模型潜力估计值年平均提高17.5%和16.1%; 以实际生产数据作为约束条件, 进一步求出乾安县、公主岭市和桦甸市产量达到15 000 kg·hm-2时的最低种植密度分别为7.7 万株·hm-2、8.2 万株·hm 2和7.9 万株·hm-2, 同时求出各生态区相应的干物质积累参数和各生育阶段的干物质积累量指标, 为玉米超高产栽培播前决策和生育期调控提供理论依据。本文分析结果可作为吉林省玉米产量潜力估计及高产与超高产创建的理论依据, 所建模型及相关分析方法也可作为其他地区作物产量潜力估计的参考。

     

    Abstract: Precise estimation of maize yield potential would enhance our understanding of crop development and yield formation and thus improve yields. Many crop models have been used in estimating yield potentials, among which the FAO-AEZ model has been shown to be efficient and accurate. However, some parameters of the FAO-AEZ model such as harvest index are set constant which limit estimation precision. Thus in this paper, we developed an optimized FAO-AEZ model to increase yield estimation accuracy. Field experiments were conducted at three ecological zones (Qian'an County, Gongzhuling City and Huadian City) in Jilin Province in 2005-2013. Dry matter accumulation at several developmental stages and grain yield of maize were measured, and then an optimized calculation method integrated with traditional FAO-AEZ model to evaluate maize yield potential. With this new method, harvest index had become a dynamic factor that was adjustable in line with maize development. Moreover, an analytical method for dry matter accumulation was developed under super-high yield production of maize and the model parameters calculated using Logistic model. The results showed a high correlation (P < 0.01) between maize yield and dry matter accumulation parameters. Then using data from independent field experiments in 2012 and 2013 to test the optimized model, low error (both absolute error and relative mean error) was noted. Using nonlinear optimization theory, the optimized model was applied in analysis of potential maize yield in Qian'an County and Huadian City. Compared with traditional FAO-AEZ model, the calculated yield potentials by the optimized model were higher by 17.5% in Qian'an County and by 16.1% in Huadian City. Furthermore, we estimated minimum planting density and dry matter accumulation at different developmental stages using a target yield of 15 000 kg·hm-2. The minimum planting density was 7.7 104 plants·hm-2, 8.2 104 plants·hm-2 and 7.9 104 plants·hm-2 in Qian'an County, Gongzhuling City and Huadian City, respectively. The optimized FAO-AEZ model provided the scientific basis for decision-making before planting and for growth period regulation in order to have super-high-yield maize production. The established model and the results of the analysis could be used to estimate yield potential, high-yield and super-high-yield cultivation in Jilin Province and other regions for maize and other crops.

     

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