土地整治对农业碳排放的影响研究基于高标准农田建设政策的准自然实验

Research on the effects of rural land consolidation on agricultural carbon emissions: a quasi-natural experiment based on the high-standard farmland construction policy

  • 摘要: 在“碳达峰、碳中和”目标下, 高标准农田建设被视为推动农业绿色低碳高质量发展的重要举措。本研究旨在深入探究高标准农田建设政策对农业碳排放的影响效应与作用机制, 为优化政策制定和农业碳减排提供经验依据, 促进低碳农业发展。本文基于2007—2017年中国30个省份的面板数据, 借助高标准农田建设政策和连续DID (Differences-in-differences)模型, 评估高标准农田建设政策对农业碳排放的影响。结果表明: 研究期间, 全国农业碳排放量呈先升后降的倒U型变化趋势, 2015年达到峰值。基准回归结果发现, 高标准农田建设政策显著抑制了农业碳排放。平均来看, 当其他条件不变时, 实施高标准农田建设政策可以显著减少10.1%的农业碳排放量。在替换解释变量和被解释变量以及剔除其他政策影响后, 高标准农田建设政策对农业碳排放的抑制作用依旧显著。动态估计结果显示, 高标准农田建设政策的减碳效应具有滞后性, 减碳效应于2013年显现出来并逐渐增强。机制分析发现, 高标准农田建设政策主要通过降低农业化学品投入强度和提高社会化服务来抑制农业碳排放。异质性分析发现, 高标准农田建设政策的减碳效应主要发生在土地流转程度高的省份和非粮食主产区, 而在土地流转程度低的省份和粮食主产区并未发挥相应的减碳效应。因此, 各级政府应差异化、精准化实施高标准农田建设政策, 关注农业化学化和社会化服务在减碳效应中的作用。

     

    Abstract: Under the carbon emission pattern of “carbon peak and carbon neutral”, agricultural carbon emissions, as one of the main sources of greenhouse gases, have become a key area for emission reduction. High-standard farmland construction is an important measure for promoting green, low-carbon, and high-quality agricultural development. An in-depth investigation of the effects and mechanisms of high-standard farmland construction policies on agricultural carbon emissions can provide an empirical basis for optimizing policy formulation and reducing agricultural carbon emissions. This is of great significance in promoting the development of low-carbon agriculture. Based on the theories of scale economy and division of labor, this study constructed a theoretical model of “high-standard farmland construction-agrochemical input intensity/socialized service-agricultural carbon emission”. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2007 to 2017, this study analyzed the effect and mechanism of the high-standard farmland construction policy on agricultural carbon emissions using a continuous differences-in-differences approach (DID) and mediation effect model. By measuring the agricultural carbon emissions of each province, this study found that national agricultural carbon emissions showed an inverted U-shaped trend, rising at the beginning, then declining, and peaking in 2015. Regions such as Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Anhui are at the forefront of agricultural carbon emissions nationwide, whereas regions such as Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Hebei, and Shandong have higher rates of agricultural carbon emission reduction. The dynamic estimation results showed that the carbon reduction of the high-standard farmland construction policy had a lag effect, and the carbon reduction effect appeared in 2013 and continued to increase gradually. The results of the benchmark regression showed that a high-standard farmland construction policy significantly suppressed agricultural carbon emissions. On average, when all other conditions remained unchanged, implementing a high-standard farmland construction policy reduced agricultural carbon emissions significantly, i.e., by 10.1%. Robustness tests were conducted using the approach of substituting variables and considering the interference of other relevant policies. The results confirmed the positive effect of the high-standard farmland construction policy on reducing agricultural carbon emissions. The results of the mechanism analysis showed that agricultural chemical input intensity and agricultural socialized services played mediating roles in reducing agricultural carbon emissions through the construction of high-standard farmland. The construction of high-standard farmlands suppressed agricultural carbon emissions, mainly by reducing agricultural chemical input intensity and improving agricultural socialized services. Heterogeneity analysis revealed that the carbon reduction effect of the high-standard farmland construction policy mainly occurred in provinces with a high degree of land transfer and in non-food-producing areas. In contrast, it did not have a corresponding carbon reduction effect in provinces with a low degree of land transfer and in food-producing areas. Therefore, the government should strengthen the construction of high-standard farmlands and differentiate the implementation of high-standard farmland construction policies according to local conditions and classifications to give full play to the emission reduction effect. In addition, the government should pay great attention to the role of agricultural chemicalization and socialized agricultural services in carbon reduction effects.

     

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